Possible scenario
Bridge Campaign Expands
38% Chance
Russia continues using support-targeting drones against Kyiv's bridge network, trying to split civilian and military logistics across the Dnipro. The most likely near-term path is further disruption rather than decisive encirclement, because Ukraine can reroute traffic but cannot quickly harden every bridge support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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