Possible scenario
Iran Link Hardens
25% Chance
Investigators find enough evidence to publicly connect the alleged plot to Iranian-linked handlers or an IRGC-associated network. The UK response is diplomatic and legal rather than military, limiting cross-asset impact but modestly lifting geopolitical risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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