Possible scenario
Partial Breakdown
18% Chance
The Jan. 10 deadline passes without a full renewal, and some suspended measures return. This is less likely than another extension, but the short duration of the new truce leaves limited time to resolve disputes over export controls, tariffs, and purchase commitments.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -2.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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