Possible scenario
Managed Truce Extension
45% Chance
Washington and Beijing use the extension to lock in a narrow follow-on understanding before the Jan. 10 deadline. The most likely path is another pragmatic rollover because both sides have incentives to avoid renewed tariffs, port fees, and rare-earth disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Technology +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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