Possible scenario
Street Protests Intensify
20% Chance
Community protests grow in Minneapolis and St. Paul, with counterprotests and heightened police presence. This scenario has the clearest potential for small, short-lived risk-off moves if unrest disrupts local commerce or triggers federal intervention.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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