Possible scenario
Military Escalation
20% Chance
Trump’s rejection is followed by retaliatory fire from Iranian forces or allied militias, prompting U.S. or partner responses. This is less likely than continued bargaining but remains a material risk because the ceasefire offer was rejected during an active conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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