Possible scenario
Ceasefire Revived
25% Chance
Despite the initial rejection, mediators narrow the dispute to duration, verification, and prisoner or detainee sequencing. A limited ceasefire or humanitarian pause becomes plausible if Tehran accepts a longer suspension formula and Washington can frame the result as tougher than Iran’s original offer.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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