Possible scenario
Orderly Debt Cleanup
45% Chance
The Finance Ministry executes the $28 billion purchase largely as an extension of Desenrola Brasil, with steep discounts from creditors and limited immediate cash-flow pressure on the Treasury. Banks remove aged delinquent loans from balance sheets, households regain access to credit, and the Central Bank treats the measure as disinflation-neutral for now.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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