Possible scenario
Price Cuts Broaden
42% Chance
Higher mortgage rates keep buyers sidelined and force more sellers to accept that 2024-2026 price expectations are no longer clearing the market. The most likely path is a wider but still orderly adjustment concentrated in rate-sensitive and inventory-heavy metros.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Finance -1.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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