Possible scenario
Withdrawal Push Advances
18% Chance
Hardline Iranian lawmakers override Russian objections and frame NPT withdrawal as the response to Israeli strikes and Western pressure. This would mark a material escalation, though the practical legal process could still leave room for reversal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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