Possible scenario
Moscow Restraint Prevails
40% Chance
Russia's public opposition gives Iranian institutions political cover to slow or freeze the NPT withdrawal bill. Tehran preserves leverage over the IAEA while avoiding a step that would isolate it from Moscow, Beijing, and much of the Global South.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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