Possible scenario
Leverage Without Exit
32% Chance
Iranian lawmakers continue to use the NPT bill as bargaining leverage after the 2025 Israeli strikes and the 2026 inspector dispute. The measure remains politically useful, but Tehran stops short of immediate withdrawal because Russia's opposition raises the diplomatic cost.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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