Possible scenario
Partial Restriction
25% Chance
A plausible compromise is that the United States did not fully cut intelligence but temporarily restricted categories of actionable targeting data. This would fit the history of fluctuating Trump policy toward Ukraine while avoiding the political cost of admitting a total cutoff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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