Possible scenario
Denial Holds
45% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that the Trump administration maintains that intelligence sharing with Ukraine was not cut after the Kyiv missile strike. Officials may clarify that any disruption was technical, procedural, or limited to strike-targeting approvals rather than a full intelligence cutoff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Tickers
- LMT-0.1%
- NOC-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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