Possible scenario
Cutoff Confirmed
18% Chance
A more destabilizing scenario is that Ukrainian officials, leaked documents, or US lawmakers contradict Trump and confirm a meaningful intelligence cutoff. This would be a material geopolitical shift because it would suggest Washington is again using intelligence access as leverage over Kyiv.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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