Possible scenario
Fiscal Strain Emerges
20% Chance
Losses near 10% of GDP could test Panama’s fiscal capacity, especially after prior drought pressure on canal revenue. Multilateral support is likely, but investors may still price higher sovereign and insurance risk if reconstruction costs rise quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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