Possible scenario
Localized containment
42% Chance
Belgian authorities keep the unrest concentrated around Liège and a few French university towns. Local police, university administrators, and student unions avoid a broader confrontation, making this the most likely near-term path after 107 arrests rather than thousands.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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