Possible scenario
Cross-border escalation
28% Chance
The Liège arrests become a rallying point for student unions in Belgium and France. Demonstrations grow beyond education policy into a wider protest against policing and austerity, creating modest risk-off pressure in European-exposed assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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