Possible scenario
Tariff Conflict Deepens
18% Chance
Rogers' public defense of tariffs reduces pressure on Trump to moderate the policy, and campaign rhetoric shifts back toward tougher action against Canada. This would raise perceived risks for autos, machinery, metals, and cross-border supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.7%
- Industrials -1.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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