Possible scenario
Targeted Relief Emerges
25% Chance
Political pressure from Michigan and other export-heavy states pushes Republicans toward narrower tariff exemptions while preserving the broader pro-tariff message. This outcome is plausible because the campaign can claim toughness while reducing pain for automakers, parts suppliers, and farmers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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