Possible scenario
GOP Message Stabilizes
45% Chance
Rogers continues to reconcile his anti-trade-war advertising with support for Trump's tariff framework, arguing that tariffs are leverage rather than an endpoint. This is the most likely outcome because Trump has endorsed him despite the split, and Rogers has an incentive to avoid a public break with the GOP nominee.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Tickers
- MG-0.8%
- GMM.USD-0.7%
- F-0.7%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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