Possible scenario
Stricter Fed Stance
24% Chance
The final application standards prove tougher than industry expected, especially on reserve segregation, redemption timing, and supervisory approvals. This scenario would be negative for crypto-native issuers and exchanges over the next one to two trading days, though still far from a systemic macro shock.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- COIN-2.8%
- -2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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