Possible scenario
Rules Largely Adopted
42% Chance
The Fed finalizes reserve, custody, and application requirements broadly consistent with the September 2026 proposal. This is the base case because Congress has already created an issuer framework and the Fed is filling in implementation details rather than reopening the policy debate.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- CRCL+3.3%
- +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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