Possible scenario
Sustained Tanker Attrition
40% Chance
Iran keeps up a high tempo of drone, missile, mine and fast-boat harassment in and around the Strait of Hormuz, but avoids a single mass-casualty event that would force immediate U.S. escalation. Shipping flows remain severely disrupted, insurance costs rise, and oil markets price a prolonged blockade rather than a sudden resolution.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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