Possible scenario
Negotiated Maritime Pause
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar and European intermediaries use the tanker-attack peak to press both Tehran and Washington toward a narrow de-escalation focused on shipping, not a full nuclear settlement. Iran keeps leverage over the Strait but accepts a verifiable pause or limited corridor in exchange for humanitarian, sanctions or escrow concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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