Possible scenario
Coalition Military Escalation
25% Chance
The United States, the United Kingdom and Gulf partners conclude that defensive escorts are insufficient and move toward more coercive operations against Iranian launch sites, naval assets and mines. The near-term market impact depends on whether strikes restore deterrence or trigger Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces and Gulf infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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