Possible scenario
Copycat State Push
19% Chance
Other states use the Illinois draft as a template while Congress remains deadlocked on federal crypto legislation. The market impact depends on whether large states pursue actual transaction taxes or merely expand reporting and licensing requirements.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
- COIN-2.5%
- -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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