Possible scenario
Manufacturing Upcycle Extends
45% Chance
The 8-year high in large manufacturer sentiment proves to be part of a durable upturn rather than a one-off survey surprise. Strong semiconductor demand, resilient exports, and the weak yen continue to lift capital spending plans and earnings expectations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Industrials +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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