Possible scenario
Security Escalation Spreads
22% Chance
The demolition becomes a trigger for wider confrontation in East Jerusalem and parts of the West Bank. The probability is lower than containment, but the symbolism of Ben Gvir personally participating increases the risk of retaliatory attacks, strikes, and Israeli raids.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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