Possible scenario
Diplomatic Legal Pushback
25% Chance
The razing becomes a diplomatic and legal issue rather than a major security escalation. Washington, the EU, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority press Israel for explanations, while rights groups prepare petitions against further East Jerusalem demolitions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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