Possible scenario
Contained Jerusalem Unrest
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is several days of Palestinian protests in East Jerusalem, with Israeli police using arrests, roadblocks, and crowd-control measures to prevent a wider spillover. The demolition remains politically explosive but does not immediately change the Gaza or West Bank security trajectory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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