Managed Coercive Regime

Iran implements the 20% cargo seizure rule as a coercive licensing and bond system rather than a blanket interdiction. Oman, Qatar, and the International Maritime Organization press for a monitored transit channel while Tehran uses the rule to extract leverage from U.S.-aligned shippers.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.