Possible scenario
Escalating Maritime Standoff
28% Chance
Washington rejects the seizure regime as unlawful and expands escorted convoys through the Strait. Iran continues inspections and seizures, increasing the chance of miscalculation without immediately triggering a broad regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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