Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
22% Chance
China, India, Qatar, and Oman push Iran and the United States into a temporary pause because a prolonged Strait disruption threatens Asian energy security and Gulf export revenues. Tehran preserves face through a regulatory review while Washington keeps sanctions pressure and naval escorts in place.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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