Possible scenario
Political Exit Ramp
20% Chance
Governor Gavin Newsom's reported support for canceling the tax creates a plausible political off-ramp. Democratic leaders may decide that the litigation risk, billionaire relocation threat, and record opposition spending make a compromise more attractive than a landmark asset tax.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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