Possible scenario
Injunction Delays Tax
35% Chance
The most likely path is that billionaire plaintiffs win a temporary or preliminary injunction while courts review state and federal constitutional claims. This would not end the measure, but it would prevent the Franchise Tax Board from collecting the first U.S. asset tax on the original schedule.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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