Possible scenario
Administrative Cure Holds
50% Chance
Maricopa County treats the premature mailing as an election-administration error rather than a fraud or chain-of-custody event. The county, Runbeck Election Services, and party observers verify ballot IDs, cancel the early batch, and reissue or validate replacements before early voting materially proceeds.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.