Possible scenario
Symbolic Stability
30% Chance
The summit plan survives, but it functions mainly as a crisis-management mechanism rather than a pathway to major trade concessions. Both governments preserve channels of communication while continuing industrial-policy, technology, and security competition.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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