Possible scenario
Managed Trade Détente
45% Chance
The four-summit plan becomes a structured channel for stabilizing U.S.-China relations without resolving the core rivalry. Washington and Beijing use the process to pause further tariff escalation, expand cabinet-level talks, and negotiate limited relief for exporters and importers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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