Possible scenario
Limited Trade Breakthrough
15% Chance
The summit process produces a more substantive trade package than markets expect. Beijing offers purchases and market-access concessions, while Washington narrows some tariff and export-control measures without abandoning its tougher China strategy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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