Possible scenario
Ballot Disputes Escalate
20% Chance
The high early-vote volume combines with the August Postal Service rule change and prior Supreme Court intervention to produce new litigation over deadlines, cure procedures, and ballot handling. This outcome does not imply a constitutional crisis, but it raises uncertainty around close House and Senate races in several states.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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