Possible scenario
White House Pressure Escalates
15% Chance
Trump intensifies public criticism of Jerome Powell and the Fed as hike odds rise. The core economic path may not change immediately, but uncertainty over Fed independence adds a modest risk premium to US assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.