Possible scenario
Fed Holds Hawkish Course
50% Chance
The Federal Reserve treats President Trump's comments as political noise and continues to prioritize tariff-driven inflation and strong activity data. With markets already assigning roughly 80% odds to an October hike, the most likely path is a modest reinforcement of existing expectations rather than a dramatic repricing.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.9%
- Technology -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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