Possible scenario
Data Delivers Surprise
25% Chance
Incoming inflation and labor-market data become more important than Trump's comments. Because the Fed has already projected more 2026 hikes, a strong or weak data print could quickly move October pricing even before the meeting.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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