Possible scenario
Probe Loses Momentum
25% Chance
The investigation produces insufficient evidence for a major enforcement action, or prosecutors hesitate because of the political and constitutional risks. The story remains a partisan flashpoint but does not materially alter Omar's legal status in the near term.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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