Possible scenario
Evidence-Driven Escalation
35% Chance
Federal investigators conclude they have enough documentary or forensic evidence to move beyond search warrants. The most likely escalation is a civil denaturalization action, because stripping citizenship usually proceeds through federal court rather than immediate criminal prosecution.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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