Possible scenario
Ottawa-Alberta Bargain Forms
25% Chance
Carney offers a concrete federal-provincial package centered on pipeline capacity, faster project assessments and limited flexibility around emissions rules. The compromise does not resolve Alberta alienation, but it reduces the chance that the referendum becomes a binary break with Canada.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Finance +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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