Possible scenario
No Vote Prevails
40% Chance
Mark Carney's visit helps consolidate federalist, business, Indigenous and municipal opposition to separation. Alberta voters reject secession, but the margin determines whether the unity issue fades quickly or becomes a recurring bargaining tool for Premier Danielle Smith.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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