Possible scenario
Narrow Yes, Legal Limbo
25% Chance
Secession supporters win narrowly, but Ottawa immediately states that a referendum cannot by itself dissolve Alberta's place in Canada. The most likely consequence is a prolonged Supreme Court process and negotiations over jurisdiction, assets, pipelines, Indigenous treaty rights and federal transfers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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