Possible scenario
Tariff Drag Reasserts
28% Chance
The market concludes that the NY Fed surprise reflects domestic orders, while export-exposed manufacturers remain under pressure from Canadian and Chinese retaliation. The headline beat supports sentiment briefly, but investors discount the durability of the rebound.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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